USATF 2009 Champs - Thursday

So for fun I decided to give a small preview and lay out some of my picks for the goings for the USATF champs this week/weekend. I will say that I am not going to give me final picks, unless the race is a final, since I have found recently (NCAA's) that a lot of athletes tend to not make finals due to injuries not made public (centro in the 1500m). Also, while I think the Junior meet (and masters, I guess) is of importance for various reasons, I really have little interest in it as none of my former athletes are competing, and I gave up on www.dyestat.com about halfway through my freshman year in college.

Sprints

No finals, I don't really care. Not that I dislike or disregard sprinting events however, there are multiple rounds for all these events (1st, semi, final) so I figured I will save myself some time by skipping my opinion of 1st round heats.

Men's Decathlon

Rumors are up about Clay being injured, so I am unsure about how he is going to fair the first day through. He could drop out after one event, or go wild and rack up 5k in points. He is a beast, having watched him compete I would want him missing a limb I wanted 1/2 a chance. However I am going to say he plays it safe and Hardee and Eaton take the 1-2 position with Clay well safe of 4th, sitting comfy in 3rd. Not knowing too much about Dec's I can't say much more other than I've got a ton of respect for them. I don't think Clay is after a WR this meet, but I wouldn't doubt seeing an attempt by the end of the summer.

Throws

Javelin Men With Breaux Greer out of the running I have to favor this seasons big throwers coming out of the PAC 10. The boys from USC and UO have put up some large marks and are probably still peaked coming off the NCAA meet. But we can't cut out Chris Hill of Georgia who took the W at NCAA's with a monster throw of 81.8m giving him a 6+ meter lead over USC's White. The entries rank Hosteler (UO), White, Hill. Given Hills late season surge I pick him the nod with White taking the number two spot and if Hosteler is on his game the last WC spot is his. Though his 4th place isn't a huge check mark against him due to White throwing under his potential as well, its still unnerving that that was his 1st throw and he went downhill while White showed an ability to throw 74+ on throw 1, and throw 5.

Discus Women There are some collegians in the field however their throws are in the 55m range while the descending list has 65 meters as the top throw. I think its safe to say a 10 meter performance improvement is unlikely especially since that seems to be their season best. Trafton leads the list with a toss of 66.21 followed by Thurmond with a mark of 65.2. That clears the rest of the field by almost 2 meters and I am going to call them finishing in that order. As I don't follow season results and don't want to do the research to see how they have fared this season. For third I will play it safe and go with 3rd seed of Breisch and call it a day on this event.

Field

High Jump Women Right off the bat, my dark horse to pull a spot is Amy Acuff given her experience however she is in a 3 way tie for 6th on the list so a lot of things need to go her way. I take the favorite (by a big margin), Howard for the win by a safe margin. With Hooker and Patterson taking 2-3 in the same order as they did in the NCAA champs.

Triple Jump Men Sharif has the number 3 mark on the list, but his mark at NCAA's was further than his mark on the USATF list, but not enough to change his ranking. Though his competition for his spot is Grinnel from Boise who failed at NCAA's with a 9th place finish, 3 fouls and a mark of 13.39m on his first jump (over 3m under SB). I saw the USATF goes as the list Bell, Roulhac, Sharif; since the 1-3 finishers from NCAA's aren't coming to Eugene.

Distance Races

Now the fun part, the distance races.

800 meter Men There are 4 heats (top 3 plus next 4 best times). The interesting entry here is Lagat who has buys in the 1500 and 5k. He has publicly said he intends to run all heats, but has also said that he will discuss competing in each round with his coach and agent, so its possible he fails to go all the way. However given his recent low 13's 5k and indoor mile exploits I say he easily gets through his first round. He has KD and Solomon in his heat, but those should be the 3 to get through. I take Scherer from OTC for the single little q. Heat 2 should produce an interesting race as Smith is an Olympian and the major name in slow heat. Him, Shaw, and probably Tetlo will be the Q's with no q's coming from this heat. Heat 3 has Wheating, Hicks, Asafo-agyei and Johnson. I take those as 1-3 respectively with Johnson with the q. Heat 4 Takes another Olympian Symmonds with a Q with Brown and Tully taking the other Q. For the 4th time spot I'll go with McClary from NCAA host Arkansas. I will go with Heat 1 being fastest however I think it will be due to front heavy loading.

800 meter Women Top 4 plus next 4 times with 3 heats. With 9 people in each heat, essentially half the heat will advance. For sake of brevity I will keep my remarks short. Heat One Q - Thomas, Waits, Palmer,Clark (leader only sub 2, 1:59). Heat Two Q - Vessey, Gall, Beckwith, Green. Heat Three Q - Hermanson, Uceny, Martinez, and the major return of Alysia Johnson!!! For the small q's I have no idea. I will go with 2 runners from Heat One and 2 from heat 2. I pick newly signed Adidas Sara Vaughn for one of the time spots as her coach Jay Johnson is very knowledgeable and from the CU school of Distance Running.

1500 Meter Men This is just nuts. There are 4 heats with 13 runners in each and only the top 2 finishers move on. Next 4 fastest times go as well. Given this I would suspect the top times (with out looking at the heats) coming from 3rd or 4th heat's. At this point I am going to have to take the kickers in these races. Heat One has NCAA stars Heath, Ulrey, Matusak, Coe along with Pro's Jefferson and Myers (3:36). I haven't heard much out of Myers this season so I am going to go with Heath and Ulrey who took 2-4 at NCAA's. Coe has the time, but not the late season performances. I don't see any "q's" from this heat. Heat Two has Lomong, Lukezic, Stanford alum Brown, and CMS ALUM JUILIANO! I am taking Lomong for a Q without a doubt and Brown of OTC for the next Q. Its very possible at time q comes from this heat as a healthy and fit Lukezic is dangerous, but he hasn't preformed well as of late. Heat 3 has Leer (4th at Trials), Webb (5th and AR), Wheating (800m Olympian), Torrence, German Fernandez (1500 champ NCAA), Steve Sherer, and Arkansas McClary (doubling in 800m). I say all the time Qualifiers come from Heat Three! This one is a hard one to pick. I am going with Wheating and Fernandez for the Q's and that 3 q's as Webb, Torrence, and Leer. Heat 4 has Olympian Manzano and old Olympian Jennings as well as Jeff See and Pifer and Bolas. I am going to take Bolas and Manzano and that's it. The last q goes to either Lukezic, See or Sherer. My pick is Sherer given the speed of his heat and its placement in the day.

1500 Meter Women Only two heats taking top 3 finishers with the next 6 best times. Heat One is loaded with the likes of Willard, Bowman, Clement, Wurth and other big names of recent NCAA stand out Senakiewich and CU grad Renee Metivier. For Q's I take Willard easily with Clement and Wurth in tow. Heat two should put up some good efforts as well but the only major name I am liking is Olympian Rowbury who along with Mortimer and Donohue should get Q's. I think given the 800m on her list, that Vaughn finishes 4th and picks up a "q". Along with Bowman, Senakiewich, Metivier, Koons, Centrowitz. Why not Hasay? I am worried about Hasay since her time isn't that fast and since I feel the first heat should be faster she will most likely be left in the dust. I will say this I am looking at Willard, Rowbury and Wurth for 1-3 in the final.

10k Men and Women Woman first of course. Just looking at the list we have Flanagan than 1:20 and Begley then :28s we have Koll, MgGregor, Hastings and Lewy Boulet. After that is pretty much over. Flanagan takes the win without a hitch. After that Begley takes 2nd just like her 3rd historic finish last year. For 3rd I have to go with either Hastings or McGregor as Koll hasn't been in top form in a while. My dark horse is Cal grad and coach, and 5th at Olmpic Marathon Trials Lewy Boulet. The race became less interesting with the scratch of Nike star Goucher. The men's race is more exciting it has more drama, bigger names and is just deeper than the woman's event. 1-10 seeds span 27:16-28:16 which means the race could be a pack 10 deep through at least the 5k maybe even the 8k if we are lucky. With the Black Cactus coming of injury and late into his fitness he enters untested this season, but in an interview claims he is ready to win the race. I have to pick him for the top 3 given he has a decent road 10k under his belt, but the W is not secure. Rupp is on fire, posting big wins at NCAA indoors and then winning the 5k-10k double off slow and varied paces. I don't doubt he can be in the top 3, but he hasn't been pushed to kick off a fast time just yet. Nelson dropped a huge time with his 27:36 which is tied for 2nd seed. In a kickers race he looses to Rupp. Dark horse is Bauhs who has been riding high since he left Chico and has been training up in the Mountains of Mammoth and down at Chula Vista. Though He probably wont do too much Meb is also in this race as well as Puskedra (JR AR possibly?). Other names to watch for top 10 finish would be NB athlete Carney and the Torres brothers. My final picks are Rupp - Abdi - Nelson. I say won in 27:25. I think the pace will be quick because Abdi will push the pace, and Nelson will go with but in the end Rupp with push and Abdi's lack of fitness will allow Rupp to close with Abdi holding off a closing Nelson. Then again I could have it all wrong.

3000 Meter Steeplechase Men Two heats with top 4 from each heat plus next 6 times. Heat One will produce Nelson, Alcorn and Perry as the Q's. Heath Two is McAdams, Morse, and Huling. Time quals are going to be Slattery, Aguayo, McPherson, Olinger, Kloos and Bruce. These names are of course the who's who of steeple in the US in college and pro ranks. I think Sallberg might be out of luck and Luke Watson outclassed. I think these races will probably be slow with hard kicks at the end making them possibly dangerous with a crashing down in the final H20 barrier. Maybe mid 8:30's to low 8:40's with all the top 4 coming in within 3-6 seconds. The problem being the big names Lincoln and Fam are missing (Fam in the 5k) makes this a less interesting.

This is going to be an interesting day.